The hottest market forecast is generally conservat

The market forecast is generally conservative, and the heavy truck market is full of pessimism

the market forecast is generally conservative, and the heavy truck market is full of pessimism

China Construction machinery information

"due to the slowdown of economic growth and the implementation of National IV emission standards, there are still problems of materials and rings bumping in the operation process, the pessimism in the heavy truck market in 2015 is relatively serious. Heavy truck enterprises' forecasts of market demand this year are generally conservative."

recently, the "automobile tire cross border Development Summit Forum - Analysis of the impact of the automobile market on the tire market in 2015" was held in Beijing. Gongyunan, an expert of Shaanxi Automobile Group and chief analyst of China truck, delivered a keynote speech at the forum, analyzed the sales situation of heavy trucks in 2014 and made a forecast for the market in 2015

the heavy truck market may continue to shrink

at the end of the year and the beginning of the year, the industry insiders' forecasts for the heavy truck market in 2015 are generally conservative, and the whole heavy truck market is full of pessimism

it is understood that analysts and front-line salespeople of key domestic heavy truck enterprises generally forecast the market demand for heavy trucks this year between 620000 and 730000 vehicles, lower than the actual sales of 744000 vehicles last year

among them, Cai Dong, general manager of SINOTRUK, believes that the sales volume of the heavy truck industry this year is expected to be the same as that in 2014 or slightly lower; Zhou Yinchao, general manager of Shaanxi heavy truck sales company, believes that the sales volume this year is 730000; Beibu Benz believes that the earthquake is very harmful in natural disasters, so this number should be about 700000; Jac is more pessimistic, with a predicted sales volume of 620000-680000 vehicles; According to Iveco Hongyan's judgment, the situation this year will be worse than last year, and the sales decline will be greater, with the national sales volume not exceeding 720000

in response to this widespread pessimism, Gong Yunan explained that the heavy truck market is the carrier of economies closely related to national economic development, such as engineering construction and material transportation, which is greatly affected by the macroeconomic environment. In 2015, the heavy truck industry had a closer relationship with the annual economic development speed. As the foreign economic environment is still uncertain, and the domestic economic growth rate is expected to slow down, the pessimistic market atmosphere is understandable

however, gongyunan also revealed that the front-line salesperson of the enterprise has never been too optimistic about the market because of his own perspective. An increase of 10% on the basis of their prediction may restore to the market itself

policy changes lead to "shortage" sales

in addition to the factors of slowing economic growth, Gong Yunan believes that another important reason for the decline in heavy truck market sales is the "shortage" sales caused by the conversion period of National IV emission standards

according to the statistical data of China Association of automobile manufacturers, the cumulative sales of commercial trucks (heavy trucks, light trucks, medium trucks, and micro trucks) decreased by 8.92% year-on-year in 2014. Adjust the speed valve appropriately according to the loading speed. Among them, 743991 heavy trucks were sold, a year-on-year decrease of 3.89%; The cumulative sales of medium-sized trucks were 247839, a year-on-year decrease of 13.6%; The cumulative sales of light trucks decreased by 12.87% year-on-year; A total of 529942 micro cards were sold, a slight increase of 0.55% year-on-year

from the data alone, 2 in addition, in the commercial truck market in 2014, medium and light trucks fell by more than 10%, heavy trucks fell slightly, and wechat was basically the same as last year

according to Gong Yunan's quarterly sales analysis of heavy trucks, the National IV standard was implemented on January 1 this year, and changes in industrial policies led to a significant decline in the heavy truck market in the fourth quarter of last year, with quarterly sales falling by 30% year-on-year. "This drop is amazing!"

he said that in addition to the decline in overall demand, in the process of converting the national III emission standard to the National IV standard, the speed and severity of policy implementation in different regions are also different, which leads to a "shortage" sales situation in the heavy truck market. In the future, this problem will still affect the sales of heavy truck market

according to its calculation, in 2014, the number of heavy trucks in the Chinese market was about 564, and it is conservatively estimated that the renewal demand this year is about 560000. At the same time, affected by the new freight volume and new projects, the new demand may exceed 200000, reaching 260000

i "we judge that in 2015, the heavy truck market was boosted by macroeconomic growth, and the market sales volume is expected to rebound after the second quarter, but the annual sales volume will still decline year-on-year. The annual sales volume of heavy trucks is predicted to be 730000 pessimistically and 807000 cautiously." Gongyunan said