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Sufficient market supply MMA market cold wave is not over

sufficient market supply MMA market cold wave is not over

November 6, 2018

during the "golden nine and silver ten" period this year, methyl methacrylate (MMA) market is a little cold. Taking East China as an example, the market price fell by more than 600 yuan from 19300 yuan (ton price, the same below) in September, and continued to fall back to 17200-17400 yuan in October

market analysts believe that at present, the bad haze shrouded in the MMA market that fully meets the mechanical standards of pipe testing has not yet dissipated, the future market is not optimistic, and it will take time for Chinese paint to build the bottom

supply is expected to increase. Wangchunming, general manager of Shandong Ruiyang Chemical Trade Co., Ltd., said that in the past two months, the main reason for the cold spell in the MMA market is the restart of early maintenance devices and sufficient market supply. At present, the average operating rate of domestic MMA production enterprises is 70%, and the monthly output is about 50000 tons. In the later stage, the supply side will remain loose

it is understood that on November 15, Evonik Shanghai plans to stop for 10 days. However, in November, 50000 T/a methacrylic acid and ester units of Wanhua chemical will be put into operation, and after the commissioning of Heilongjiang Longxin ACh project, its MMA capacity will increase to 75000 T/A

wangchunming said that the products produced by the new device will flow into the market at the end of November or early December, so the current industry is more bearish about the future market, and its willingness to enter the market is reduced. Even some downstream terminal production enterprises limited production and stopped, waiting for the MMA market price to fall sharply to the psychological level before entering the replenishment position. This will be bad for MMA market

in addition, the influx of a large number of imported products into China also puts pressure on the market for regular inspection and revision of experimental machines

Zhang Xu, manager of Jilin Baoyuan Chemical Trade Co., Ltd., said that since late September, with the opening of the arbitrage window, domestic imports of MMA products have reached 13000 tons. The supply level continued to be abundant, and the overall social inventory remained at a high level, increasing the pressure on the market to go long

"in the future, the MMA arbitrage window is still not closed. However, if the market continues to decline significantly and is lower than the Southeast Asian market price of $100~200, the export level may start quickly. At that time, the export will increase, reduce the market operating pressure, and the price may stabilize." Zhang Xu said

raw materials are difficult to strengthen. From the perspective of raw materials, whether acetone or acrylonitrile, the market is under heavy pressure to recover, and it is difficult to form a strong support for MMA in terms of cost

Bian Chenhui, an analyst at jinlianchuang, believes that since September, the willingness to buy downstream acetone has weakened, and the contradiction between supply and demand has increased. In addition, a large number of concentrated goods arrived at the port, which increased the acetone inventory to 50000 tons, reaching a historical high. Business confidence was impacted, early profit margins accelerated shipments, and prices continued to fall

"although the acetone inventory in the port has fallen slightly recently, it has not stopped the market from falling. At present, the spot supply is sufficient, and merchants have to sell at a profit, while the downstream demand continues to be weak, and there are few large order transactions." Bian Chenhui said

in terms of acrylonitrile, although there are many maintenance devices recently, the upstream raw material propylene market continued to plummet, coupled with the weak downstream demand, the transaction volume contracted significantly, and the inventory of some sources of goods rose to a high level. It is expected that the acrylonitrile market still has room for further weakness, which is bad for the future market of MMA

the demand is weak. Li Jiayi, an analyst at Zhongyu information, said that the downstream demand is flat. Polymethylmethacrylate (PMMA) and silicone modification can also be designed as a flexible battery sewn into your clothes. The poor delivery of polyether adhesive (MS) is an important reason why the MMA market is difficult to turn around. In the future, this bad news will continue to act on the raw material market and restrain the stabilization of MMA market

"the overall demand for PMMA and MS is poor, and some manufacturing enterprises have some shipping pressure. In particular, some domestic PMMA enterprises are impacted by the low-cost source of imports, the overall sales pressure is on, and the actual market price is weak and downward." According to Li Jiayi's analysis, at present, PMMA plate manufacturers mainly consume their own finished product inventory due to weak purchasing in the downstream end market, maintaining low and medium load operating rates. In the short term, there is no sign of recovery in demand

ms market prices also fell to varying degrees. In October, the market price of the fourth generation pavement machinery zone in Northeast Asia and other places fell by US $50~100, except that the offer price in Singapore remained firm. In addition, the market of acrylate polymer additives has continued its consolidation and operation trend recently, and the end-users' actual orders are more rigid and need to replenish their positions

"the overall trading atmosphere of the special monomer market remains positive, and the overall trading atmosphere of the ink, coating and related additives industry is acceptable. However, its demand share is small, which is not enough to turn the MMA market around." Zhang Xu said

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