The hottest market hype atmosphere is active, and

The market hype atmosphere is active, and LLDPE will accelerate its rise in the short term

recently, LLDPE ignored the adjustment of oil prices, and walked out of the relatively unique market with two chucks on the device. Its strong trend surprised bears in the early stage of the market. Volume and price positions cooperate with the upward trend, so the momentum of such rise can be said to be sufficient, as shown in the figure below:

the figure shows the trend of LLDPE futures price. (image source: China Swiss Finance)

at present, technically, the price has successfully broken through the 0.618 rebound level and has been strongly raised. The next target will be near the early peak of 12000. Judging from the registered warehouse receipts of Dachang exchange, they have continued to increase to 7073 recently, but the current price has not stopped because of this. Especially after 9/11 entered the delivery period, due to the tight supply of goods in the market, the downstream has gradually recognized the current high price level. After all, import costs have continued to rise recently. This is also the reason for the sharp rise in plastic prices under rigid demand

first of all, the weak consumption in the early stage began to boom due to the bad weather changes PetroChina and Sinopec continued to rise, and the quotations around the country continued to rise by yuan/ton. Some businesses were reluctant to sell and close their offers. On the whole, the market inquiry was good. Due to heavy snow in the northern region, the transportation was not smooth, and the transaction was blocked, and the transaction at a high level in southern and eastern China was not ideal; In the short term, the adjustment of crude oil will increase the volatility of the PE market, but due to the small amount of spot available for trading, there will be no sharp decline. With strong cost support, the callback range will be small, and the later market will remain on the road. Quotations from all over the country are strong. Domestic linear membrane in North China is quoted at yuan/ton, high-pressure ordinary membrane is quoted at yuan/ton, domestic 5000S is quoted at yuan/ton, hollow parts are out of stock, quoted at yuan/ton, market is prosperous, injection molding is quoted at yuan/ton, membrane is quoted at yuan/ton; Affected by the blizzard weather, transportation capacity in Hebei/Shandong and other places is limited, resulting in a temporary shortage of local resources, which continues to be overestimated

secondly, demand growth drives capacity expansion. According to the latest release of the national plastic film production, it increased to 594661 tons in September, an increase of 11.5% compared with the same period last year From January to September, the year-on-year increase was 8.4%. In September, agricultural film production increased by 21.1% compared with the same period last year. From January to September, the growth rate was 16.8% compared with the same period last year. Polyethylene production in September increased by 26.5% compared with the same period last year, and the cumulative amount from January to September increased slightly by 0.7% compared with the same period last year. The above data shows that the financial crisis has not had a great impact on plastic consumption. This year's large output growth shows that the rigid demand of LLDPE is still the decisive factor supporting its price, and the rise in oil prices has also become the driving force behind the rise in plastic prices

in terms of import data, it can still be seen that domestic consumption is still 3 Friction and wear testing machine: a kind of strong machine with relatively small consumption, although the capacity expansion of Dushanzi hyped in the early stage once made the price fall below the 10000 point mark and slide to 9395 yuan/ton. Then, the medium-term trend of prices reversed strongly under the new wave of inflation expectations and the sharp rise of oil prices, which showed the strong bargain hunting and obvious cost support with a positive line. At present, the production cost of LLDPE converted from ethylene is 9672 (+41), and the production cost of LLDPE converted from naphtha is 10113 (+25). In September 2009, the import volume of plastic in primary shape was 2.2 million tons, and the month on month increase could not only increase the soil pH value to close to the neutral length by 5.8%. The cumulative import volume from January to September was 18.1 million tons, up 30.6% from 13.86 million tons in the same period of 2008

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